It’s cold this week, but no blizzard in sight. I still miss those deep, quiet snowfalls that transformed Central Park and turned the 79th Street hill into a childhood thrill ride for my kids. Such happy memories.

Same city. Different Century.
This week delivered the rate news we've been waiting for: The Federal Reserve finally delivered its "hawkish cut," lowering borrowing costs. Almost simultaneously, we released the Compass 2026 Housing Market Outlook (authored by COMPASS Chief Economist Mike Simonsen.)
I was honored to contribute insights to the New York City market of this national report. The overall message is one of optimism: After years of extremes, we are finally moving into a more stable, more balanced era.
IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION:
2026 Housing Market Outlook: What "Normal" means for NYC.
The Zayed National Museum Opens in Abu Dhabi: A stunning architectural study in sustainability.
National Signals Shaping 2026
Here is my breakdown of the most critical signals shaping the market in 2026:
The forecast is normalization. And as always there are opportunities:
Prices Normalize: National prices are expected to be essentially flat next year—a forecast of +0.5%. After the volatility of the past 4 years, this stable forecast is a relief for many.
Sales Volume Rises: Home sales are set to rise 5%, potentially reaching 4.25 million, with upside to 4.5 million if employment stabilizes and borrowing costs continue to ease.
Inventory is Growing: Inventory is finally growing, with an expected 10% increase nationally. Crucially, the Northeast and Midwest are showing the clearest improvement.
The "Great Stay" is Thawing: Nearly 20% of U.S. mortgages now have rates above 6%. This means more homeowners are no longer "locked in" by ultra-low pandemic rates, and mobility which seemed to be basically frozen since 2022, is beginning to return.
Household Wealth Remains Strong: The U.S. household balance sheet is incredibly robust. Net worth is near $175 trillion, and home equity is at a historic high: over $17 trillion. There is no sign of a wave of distressed selling.
Structural Demand Continues: We cannot ignore the structural constraints supporting demand: a 3–4 million housing unit shortage nationally, tight labor, and material-supply bottlenecks.
🗽 NYC Context: What "Normalization" Means for Manhattan & Brooklyn
Here’s what normalization means specifically for Manhattan and Brooklyn: markets defined by resilience, scarcity, and buyer sophistication.
The key finding in the report is regional divergence. Conditions in Boston or NY look nothing like Tampa or Phoenix, and local expertise will matter more.
Here’s how the national forecast translates specifically to our resilient, supply-constrained New York City market:
Steady Pricing: While national prices stabilize, our chronic inventory shortage in prime Manhattan and Brooklyn means we anticipate modest price growth in key segments.
Strategic Opportunity for Buyers: Buyers will have better negotiating leverage in areas with growing inventory or for homes that require renovation.
Sellers Must Be Realistic: Sellers who price realistically will do well. Homes that sit too long end up selling for less; homes priced correctly from the start continue to move—a clear pattern we've seen over and over again.
2026 is shaping up to be a “normal” year after the pandemic era: steady, sane, and full of opportunity for those prepared to act decisively.
Ready to Plan Your 2026 Move?
Local expertise matters more than ever. General news won't tell you how this forecast impacts the value of your specific co-op on the Upper East Side or that townhouse in Park Slope.
I would be happy to schedule 15 minutes to walk you through the full 2026 forecast and discuss how these changes directly impact your home's worth, your buying power, and your strategic opportunities for the year ahead.
The Zayed National Museum Opens in Abu Dhabi
In my tribute to Frank Gehry last week I quoted him as saying: "Architecture should speak of its time and place, but yearn for timelessness."
The newly opened Zayed National Museum in Abu Dhabi, I believe, does this beautifully.
The museum is designed by Lord Norman Foster of Foster + Partners, who have shaped parts of our own NYC skyline such as 50 United Nations Plaza, the newly opened JP Morgan Chase building at 270 Park Avenue, 425 Park Avenue (home to Citadel's HQ), plus many more.
Foster & Partners designed a structure inspired by a falcon's wings that uses passive, sustainable cooling. It is a masterpiece honoring heritage while tackling the biggest challenges of its climate. It’s a powerful global reminder that true value is found in design mastery and sustainability. As Lord Norman Foster explains:
“Zayed National Museum tells the story of Sheikh Zayed’s creation of the Emirates and the many facets of his legacy, including his vision of greening the desert. The building itself is an expression of sustainability, with five aerodynamic wings that are an integral part of the environmental system, acting as thermal chimneys and drawing cool air through the public spaces.”

Foster + Partners' Falcon Wings: A Masterclass in Sustainability. The design acts as a passive cooling system, and a climate-responsive masterpiece.
I saw this structure rising from the ground when I visited Abu Dhabi almost exactly a year ago. I was intrigued by these soaring forms emerging from the sand and wondered what they would become. We had just visited the marvelous Abrahamic Family House and were on our way to the Louvre Abu Dhabi, Jean Nouvel’s magnificent, light-drenched masterpiece. Even in that extraordinary context, this new silhouette caught my eye.
Last week, Abu Dhabi revealed what those forms have become: the Zayed National Museum, the long-anticipated cultural anchor of the Saadiyat Cultural District and now the official national museum of the United Arab Emirates.
The museum tells the story of the Emirates: from its earliest settlements to the forces that shaped its modern identity, through the values of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan.
Designed by Foster + Partners, the building is both symbolic and ingenious. According to Wallpaper, five steel wings rise from the desert, evoking the feathers of a falcon (a national emblem of the UAE) while also functioning as thermal chimneys that pull cool air through the museum.
Norman Foster described the building as an embodiment of Sheikh Zayed’s vision: sustainable, grounded in heritage, and inspired by the falcon, a national symbol woven throughout Emirati culture.
Inside, the museum is organized around Al Liwan, a bright atrium designed as the central gathering space. Wallpaper, in its coverage of the opening, noted: suspended above the atrium are pod-like gallery structures, each carefully climate-controlled to protect the artifacts within. Natural light filters through glazing and rooflights that subtly adjust with the sun, shaping the experience of the interior throughout the day.
The museum rises from a sculpted earthen mound that abstracts the UAE’s topography and helps insulate the galleries below — a design strategy described by Archinect. Extending outward, a garden draws the building toward the coastline, offering shaded paths, gathering areas, and a viewing platform with wide views across the desert and the sea.
In many ways, the Zayed National Museum feels like a conversation between past and future: a national story housed in a building that pushes the possibilities of sustainable design in extreme climates. It’s a reminder that architecture, at its best, becomes a part of the cultural narrative and identity.
And this one will for generations in the UAE.

Inside the Zayed Museum's Al Liwan atrium.
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