In this week's edition:
Did You Know:
Crime in NYC, Mortgage Rates, Bank profits
National Trends:
US Homes Are Shrinking
How New Development Defined 2025:
Manhattan & Brooklyn by the numbers
Did You Know?
Crime in NYC: A quick reality check, based on the numbers:
Contrary to some recent headlines, NYPD data shows that 2025 was the safest year on record for gun violence in New York City, with the fewest shooting incidents and shooting victims ever recorded.
December 2025 marked the lowest number of shootings for any single month in the city’s history.
Major crime categories, including murder, robbery, and burglary, declined citywide over the course of the year.
Transit crime fell meaningfully, and when adjusted for ridership, the subway is now among the safest it has been in years, reaching levels not seen since before the pandemic.
It’s a useful reminder that perception and data don’t always align, and that New York continues to outperform expectations in ways that often go underreported.
On other fronts:
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower, with the average 30-year fixed rate recently falling to just over 6%, its lowest level since late 2022, according to Freddie Mac.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the 6 largest U.S. banks posted record revenues in 2025, generating approximately $593 billion, up about 6% year over year, while combined profits rose roughly 8% to $157 billion, nearing, but not exceeding, the pandemic-era peak.
US Homes Are Getting Smaller
The median size of newly constructed single-family homes peaked at 2,500 square feet in 2015, and has since then declined steadily.
While the national trend points toward smaller single-family footprints to combat affordability, Manhattan buyers are doing the opposite: prioritizing expansive, high-tech 'Wellness Infrastructure' and turnkey lifestyle suites.
2025 in Review: How New Development Condos Defined the Year
As we wrap up the first few weeks of 2026, I wanted to take a moment to look at the hard data from last year. For my clients who were waiting for a "market reset," 2025 provided a very different answer: stability and tightening supply.
2025 was the Year of the New Development Resurgence.
The Manhattan new development market led the way. While the broader market found its footing, the condo sector saw a 71% annual surge in sales volume by the third quarter, even if contract counts normalized.
Here is what really moved the needle for us and our clients over the last 12 months:
1. The Flight to Quality & "Ready-to-Move-In"
2025 continued the trend of recent years of a shift away from "fixer-uppers." Buyers were willing to pay a premium for the certainty of new construction. We saw this most clearly in the luxury segment, where cash was king, representing nearly 65% of all transactions. The "all-in" lifestyle offered by many new developments have became the gold standard, as buyers are prioritizing turnkey luxury and comprehensive amenity suites over the headache of a renovation.
2. The West Village & Upper East Side "Arms Race"
Downtown continued to shatter records, with projects like 80 Clarkson and 140 Jane St. signing contracts at incredible numbers (reaching as high as $5,000 per square foot). However, the Upper East Side had its own renaissance. Boutique developments like 200 East 75th St. proved that there is still a massive appetite for "Modern Candela" style, classic architecture paired with 2026-level tech and wellness.
3. Supply Scarcity: The Silent Catalyst
One of the biggest stories of 2025 was the tightening of the pipeline. New condo launches actually declined significantly toward the end of the year, leaving us with a "lean" inventory going into 2026. For savvy buyers, this created a sense of urgency. With only about 3,200 new units slated through 2027 —well below the decade average— the units sold last year are already looking like very smart long-term holds.
4. Beyond the Gym: Wellness as Infrastructure
In 2025, "amenities" stopped meaning just a fitness center. We saw the rise of Wellness Infrastructure: triple-filtered air and water systems, cold plunge pools, and even private "longevity centers" within buildings.
What this means for buyers in 2026:
We are entering this year with a market that has "shaken off" the uncertainty. If you’ve been waiting for a "correction," 2025 proved that the demand for prime NYC real estate is too deep for that.
Currently, the "months of supply" for new developments is sitting at its fastest pace in over 3 years. The window of opportunity is narrower than it looks.
Manhattan: The 10-Year Average Benchmark
Looking at the contract activity in Manhattan, 2025 was a year of "right-sizing." While we didn't see the frenetic post-pandemic peak of 2021, we landed at 1,351 signed contracts, hovering just below the 10-year historical average.
The Manhattan Takeaway:
Pricing Resilience: Despite broader economic shifts, the median sale price held firm at $2.5 million, with a steady price per square foot of $2,100.
The Inventory Crunch: This is the headline for 2026—Manhattan inventory declined 14% year-over-year. We are currently looking at roughly 34 months of supply, which sounds like a lot until you realize how quickly the "prime" inventory is being absorbed.
Brooklyn: A Targeted Pullback
Brooklyn remains the borough of choice for those seeking a "measured" entry into new development. Contract volume saw a modest 8% dip to 1,040 deals, but total dollar volume only moved 2%, (to $1.759 billion), signaling that while there were fewer deals, they were happening at higher price points.
The Brooklyn Takeaway:
Steady Value: The median sale price remained a robust $1.4 million, with the price per square foot locked in at $1,429.
Faster Absorption: Brooklyn's inventory also tightened (down 8%), leaving us with about 31 months of supply, a slightly faster absorption rate than Manhattan.
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