Pictured above: The Sky House living room, with framed views of Sleeping Indian. Listed by my dear colleagues in Jackson Hole. (Graham-Faupel-Mendenhall & Associates | COMPASS)

This week runs the gamut: Powell in Jackson Hole and the questions shaping our future… and, on Canal Street, a row of Labubus, where a vendor exclaimed, “For you, just $8!” — reminding me why I love New York.

In this week’s edition:

First, a few words about the future. Then scroll down for this week's eye-candy home.

Last night I was with a group of highly sophisticated, well-informed friends, and our conversation kept circling back to the same theme: the future, and what lies ahead given all the changes that have been enacted, and those still being proposed. The mood was mixed: a little optimism, but also a healthy dose of concern.

Let’s start with Powell’s much-anticipated announcement in Jackson Hole on Friday. He all but confirmed what the markets have been whispering for months: rate cuts are coming, likely in September. Sounds like good news, right? Maybe. But as with most things these days, it’s complicated.

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates in September. Lower rates usually mean lower mortgages — but not always, and not for long. Mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed; they’re just as tied to the 10-year Treasury yield and overall market sentiment. Bottom line: A Fed cut may feel like a win, but if prices and costs run hotter, the savings can vanish quickly.

There are so many other factors at play. Tariff policy, for starters. How is that going to shake out? I feel like the full effects of tariffs have not been seen yet. We’re well into the 21st century, where global economies are intimately tied together. And then there’s the push for next-gen technologies, starting with the AI revolution and building on it. That wave has the potential to unlock incredible opportunities, and risks, we may not even have a notion of yet.

I’m no economist, so I may not be seeing the full picture. Nevertheless, here’s my take, looking at it through the real estate lens:

First of all, in New York City, especially where I mostly specialize: Manhattan and prime Brooklyn, the impact of lower rates may be muted anyway. Nearly 70% of buyers here are paying all cash today, up from just under 50% only three years ago. That means a rate cut, even if it pulls mortgage rates down, may only ripple lightly through our residential market. Where it will affect us here is how it impacts the commercial market, as well as the broader U.S. economy. That’s where financing plays a much bigger role—and it could be far more consequential.

So I keep circling back to questions:

In Manhattan’s luxury market, the dominance of cash buyers has changed the playbook. With nearly 70% of deals closing in cash, the top end feels insulated from interest rate swings. Liquidity, whether from wealth transfers, stock market gains, or global capital seeking safe haven, remains the defining factor.

That doesn’t mean a September cut is irrelevant here. Lower rates could ease pressure in the broader market, helping more move-up buyers and sellers outside the luxury tier, which in turn supports activity up the chain. But for prime properties—the Gold Coast co-ops, the trophy condos, the brownstones with character—the buyer pool is less sensitive to financing costs and more focused on long-term value, quality of life, and positioning their wealth in New York.

So while Powell’s words in Jackson Hole matter, Manhattan real estate moves to its own rhythm. Here, the questions I posed earlier—about capital flows, productivity, inflation, and stability—loom larger than a single rate cut. They shape confidence. And confidence is the real currency of this market.

Here's a graph showing inflation trends for the goods and services sectors. (Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo.)

The main takeaways:

* Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs and the depreciation of the dollar.

* There are also signs that service sector inflation is about to move higher.

Walking back to the office after a tour of SoHo with clients, I stepped onto Canal Street. For me, Canal Street has always meant stalls hawking everything: from tourist paraphernalia and craftily copied designer handbags to scarves, gloves, and everything in between. But this time, while the usual jumble was still there, something felt different. The street looked suspiciously upscale. New galleries, refined storefronts—gentrification, unfolding live before my eyes.

Canal Street isn’t just any street. Originally built over a canal that drained the polluted Collect Pond in the early 1800s, it was completed around 1820 and named for that very waterway. By the 20th century, it had become a hub for jewelry, electronics, and eventually the famous knockoff trade.

Today, though, Canal feels caught between two worlds. Sandwiched between uber-cool SoHo and uber-luxury Tribeca, it has long been an anomaly. But now, tucked between the handbag vendors, you find the super-chic Roman and Williams Guild and its adjoining restaurant La Mercerie. And just down the street, another layer of refinement: the Guild Gallery, opened in November 2021, a contemplative extension of Roman & Williams’ design vision. Step inside and it feels less like Canal Street grit, more like a curated European salon.

And yet, Canal has not abandoned its character. I spotted a small row of Labubu dolls lined up at one of the stalls. Curious about the craze, I studied the quirky little figures until the vendor, sensing a sale, approached me. I asked the price. “$10” he said. I had no intention of indulging, so I thanked him and turned to leave. That’s when he called after me: “For you, $8!” I laughed, repeating “Just for me, eight!” as I walked away.

You’ve gotta love New York and all its diversity. Where else can you find a “genuine-looking” Labubu for $8, when the real ones typically sell for $20–30 in “blind boxes,” where you don’t know the color or design until you open it. The rare “secret” Labubus (a 1-in-72 shot) are the ones popping up on resale sites for thousands of dollars!

Maybe I should have taken up the vendor on his $8 offer!

I took the photos below of the "grit" on Canal. There are plenty of photos online of the glamour.

This week's eye candy: a stunning home in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with a mesmerizing backdrop.

From the listing description

(Courtesy: Graham-Faupel-Mendenhall & Associates | COMPASS)

Overlooking the wide valley, with framed views of Sleeping Indian, The Sky House feels less like a building and more like a meditation. Light, space, and material guide its form. Across 6.41 acres, the residence rests quietly in the native landscape, drawing from Japanese restraint and European precision to create a home that listens as much as it speaks.

Inside, the language is one of texture and calm—European oak, Italian travertine, hand-troweled plaster, Madera ceilings. Each surface chosen not for ornament, but for tone, rhythm, and touch. Five ensuite bedrooms and a private guest wing fold into a central living space, where clean lines and soft light keep the mood one of ease.

This is a house of balance—between architecture and nature, between weight and air, between presence and stillness. At once grounded and elevated, The Sky House marks Belgian architect Dieter Vander Velpen’s debut in Jackson Hole, a study in precision and restraint that finds clarity in simplicity.

651 New Listings came to market this August, 76 less than the number that came on during the same period last year.

Total average inventory in August: 8,015, nearly 5% lower than the average inventory of July.

662 New Contracts Signed in August so far, 8 more than the same period last year.

(See below our charts showing monthly trends.)

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